Auswertung der Nationalratswahlen in Österreich

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  • Auswertung der Nationalratswahlen in Österreich

    Wahlfieber Team, 09.10.2021 03:05
    #1

    In diesem Thread sind die Auswertungen der letzten Nationalratswahlen dokumentiert - beginnend mit der Wahl im Jahre 2013.

    Die Auswertungskriterien können an folgender Stelle ein- und nachgelesen werden:

    Wie wir die Prognosegüte ermitteln - http://www.wahlfieber.de/de_du/forum/WaFi-Team/7585/

    *******

    Dieser Thread wird nach jeder Nationalratswahl um eine aktuelle Auswertung ergänzt.

    *******

    *******

    Die nachfolgenden Auflistungen erheben keinen Anspruch auf Vollständigkeit, obgleich wir bemüht sind, möglichst alle Prognosen zu erfassen.

    Link prediction
    There is 1 a reply to this post.

  • Auswertung der Nationalratswahl 2013

    Wahlfieber Team, 09.10.2021 03:26, Reply to #1
    #2

    Nationalratswahl 2013 - Ermittelung der Prognosegüte


    		SPÖÖVPFPÖBZÖGrüneFRANKNEOSAndere
    		NoteMAFMAPFMQFR
    Ergebnis 200829,3026,0017,5010,7010,400,000,006,10




















    Prognosen 2013




























    Wahlbörsen













    Wahlfieber - Schlusskurs26,5722,1021,153,5813,307,033,892,38
    		2,000,8010,170,973
    WaFi intern - Schlussk.26,9622,4821,333,0013,327,173,552,19
    		2,130,8611,751,025
    weitere Wahlbörsen














    keine














    detaill. Wahlfieber-Werte













    Mittel - Schlusskurs26,7722,2921,243,2913,317,103,722,29X2,040,8110,720,97
















    		SPÖÖVPFPÖBZÖGrüneFRANKNEOSAndere
    		NoteMAFMAPFMQFR
    Umfragen













    Karmasin27,0023,0021,002,0014,007,004,002,00
    		2,260,8813,341,086
    Hajek27,0023,0020,003,0015,007,003,002,00
    		2,311,0113,341,717
    Market26,0022,0020,003,0015,009,002,003,00
    		3,291,7026,684,0312
    OGM27,0022,0021,004,0014,006,004,002,00
    		1,800,757,930,992
    Spectra26,0023,0020,004,0013,009,002,502,50
    		2,781,2019,612,439
    Gallup27,0023,0020,002,0014,007,003,004,00
    		3,201,2527,641,9311
    Meinungsraum28,0024,0019,002,0015,007,004,001,00
    		2,851,2621,052,0410
















    		SPÖÖVPFPÖBZÖGrüneFRANKNEOSAndere
    		NoteMAFMAPFMQFR
    Expertenprognosen













    Wahlfieber Team (MMI)27,0022,5021,003,5013,506,504,002,00
    		1,630,636,700,651
    Romani seniores, Aenii26,5023,0021,003,0013,507,503,002,50
    		2,430,9515,551,248















    Wahltipps













    Wahlfieber-User26,7922,5621,243,1113,586,743,712,25
    		2,010,7810,470,844
















    		SPÖÖVPFPÖBZÖGrüneFRANKNEOSAndere
    		NoteMAFMAPFMQFR
    Durchschnittswerte













    Wahlbörsen26,7722,2921,243,2913,317,103,722,29
    		2,060,8310,960,99
    Umfragen26,8622,8620,142,8614,297,433,212,36
    		2,691,15
    		18,512,03

    Expertenprognosen26,7522,7521,003,2513,507,003,502,25
    		2,070,7911,120,95
    Wahltipps26,7922,5621,243,1113,586,743,712,25
    		2,010,7810,470,84















    Summe













    Gesamtdurchschnitt26,8222,7220,563,0213,937,243,392,32
    		2,441,01
    		15,351,58













































    Ergebnis 201326,8223,9920,513,5312,425,734,962,04






    		SPÖÖVPFPÖBZÖGrüneFRANKNEOSAndere
    		NoteMAFMAPFMQFR















    Link prediction
    There is 1 a reply to this post.

  • Auswertung der Nationalratswahl 2017

    Wahlfieber Team, 09.10.2021 03:46, Reply to #2
    #3

    Nationalratswahl 2017 - Ermittelung der Prognosegüte


    		SPÖÖVPFPÖGrüneNEOSPilzAndere
    		NoteMAFMAPFMQFR
    Ergebnis 201326,8024,0020,5012,405,000,0011,30



















    Prognosen 2017


























    Wahlbörsen *












    Wahlfieber - Schlusskurs24,6830,4525,695,755,354,803,28
    		2,590,9917,621,579
    WaFi intern - Schlussk.24,7030,4125,925,635,324,873,15
    		2,500,9316,341,478
    weitere Wahlbörsen












    PESM Prognosys25,1230,8925,775,425,484,622,70
    		2,120,7211,880,916














    detaill. Wahlfieber-Werte












    Mittel - Schlusskurs24,6930,4325,815,695,344,843,22X2,550,9616,981,52















    		SPÖÖVPFPÖGrüneNEOSPilzAndere
    		NoteMAFMAPFMQFR
    Umfragen












    Research Affairs
    		23,0033,0027,005,006,005,001,00a2,831,4419,393,1410
    Unique Research
    		27,0034,0025,004,004,004,002,00n1,890,828,581,332
    Hajek27,0032,0024,005,006,004,002,00c2,000,7310,360,904
    Market23,0033,0025,005,005,006,003,00i2,811,4719,043,2710
    OGM27,0033,0025,004,005,004,002,00k1,470,535,430,521
    IMAS23,0034,0024,008,004,004,003,00t3,602,1530,196,4813
    Spectra22,0033,0027,006,004,005,003,00y3,141,7622,824,9412
    Chr. Matzka26,0032,0025,004,005,005,003,00u1,920,619,990,443















    		SPÖÖVPFPÖGrüneNEOSPilzAndere
    		NoteMAFMAPFMQFR
    Expertenprognosen












    Wahlfieber Team (MMI)25,5031,0025,505,005,504,503,00
    		2,090,6611,820,635
    Romani seniores, Aenii28,0030,0026,005,005,503,002,50
    		2,220,8212,931,007














    Wahltipps












    Wahltoto - heute.at21,3026,8029,905,604,603,808,00
    		4,973,3055,7715,1514
    FAZ Orakel22,7032,1025,605,305,704,504,10
    		2,991,2922,173,4211















    		SPÖÖVPFPÖGrüneNEOSPilzAndere
    		NoteMAFMAPFMQFR
    Durchschnittswerte












    Wahlbörsen  24,8330,5825,795,605,384,763,04
    		2,410,8815,281,29
    Umfragen
    		24,7533,0025,255,134,884,632,38
    		2,551,19
    		15,722,63

    Expertenprognosen26,7530,5025,755,005,503,752,75
    		2,160,7412,380,82
    Wahltipps22,0029,4527,755,455,154,156,05
    		4,10
    		2,3038,979,28















    Summe













    Gesamtdurchschnitt24,6731,7125,765,255,104,473,05
    		2,741,22
    		18,293,01





























    Prognosen (17:30 h)












    ORF - 1. Hochrechnung26,2030,5026,804,705,304,302,20
    		1,410,505,050,41
    ATV - 1. Hochrechnung25,6031,0027,404,205,803,302,70
    		2,090,8111,440,82




























    Ergebnis 201726,8631,4725,973,805,304,412,19






    		SPÖÖVPFPÖGrüneNEOSPilzAndere
    		NoteMAFMAPFMQFR
    Link prediction
    There is 1 a reply to this post.

  • Auswertung der Nationalratswahl 2019

    Wahlfieber Team, 09.10.2021 04:18, Reply to #3
    #4

    Nationalratswahl 2019 - Ermittelung der Prognosegüte


    		ÖVPSPÖFPÖNeosGrünePilzAndere
    		Note
    		MAFMAPFMQFR
    Ergebnis 201731,5026,9026,005,303,804,402,10



















    Prognosen 2019


























    Wahlbörsen












    Wahlfieber - Schlusskurs33,9322,6619,348,4611,322,501,79
    		2,871,7518,334,5910
    WaFi intern - Schlussk.33,7822,8619,288,3910,922,491,70
    		2,861,8217,715,089














    detaill. Wahlfieber-Werte












    Mittel - Schlusskurs33,8622,7619,318,4311,122,501,75X2,861,7818,024,82















    		ÖVPSPÖFPÖNeosGrünePilzAndere
    		NoteMAFMAPFMQFR
    Umfragen












    Karmasin34,0022,0020,009,0013,001,001,00
    		2,811,5917,884,268
    Research Affairs34,0023,0021,008,0011,002,001,00
    		2,771,9414,436,745
    Unique Research33,0022,0020,008,0013,002,002,00
    		2,701,5615,095,224
    Hajek34,0022,0020,008,0013,002,001,00
    		2,321,3710,814,042
    Kowarcz31,0020,0022,009,0013,002,003,00
    		3,842,4430,1011,6514
    Market34,0022,0021,009,0011,002,001,00
    		2,801,9115,166,477
    OGM34,0022,0020,008,0012,002,002,00
    		2,691,5615,744,493
    IFES32,0019,0026,008,0011,003,400,60
    		4,413,2534,8720,3515
    Weekend34,0022,0021,0010,0010,002,001,00
    		3,052,1917,967,8412















    		ÖVPSPÖFPÖNeosGrünePilzAndere
    		NoteMAFMAPFMQFR
    Expertenprognosen












    Wahlfieber Team (MMI)33,5023,0019,008,5011,502,502,00
    		3,011,8220,584,8311
    Romani seniores, Aenii36,5022,5017,508,5012,501,501,00
    		2,060,8710,870,971














    Wahltipps












    Wahlfieber-User33,8022,0019,908,7011,602,201,80
    		2,771,7016,384,856
    Kurier-Wahltipp33,3022,0020,908,4010,002,602,80
    		3,792,3032,458,3413















    		ÖVPSPÖFPÖNeosGrünePilzAndere
    		NoteMAFMAPFMQFR
    Durchschnittswerte












    Wahlbörsen  33,8622,7619,318,4311,122,501,75
    		2,861,7818,024,82
    Umfragen
    		33,3321,5621,228,5611,892,041,40
    		3,111,9819,127,90
    Einzelprognosen35,0022,7518,258,5012,002,001,50
    		2,581,3415,722,90
    Wahltipps33,5522,0020,408,5510,802,402,30
    		3,312,0024,426,42














    Summe












    Gesamtdurchschnitt33,6521,9320,468,5311,662,151,58
    		3,04
    		1,8719,226,65




























    Ergebnis 201937,4621,1816,178,1013,901,871,32






    		ÖVPSPÖFPÖNeosGrünePilzAndere
    		NoteMAFMAPFMQFR
    Link prediction
    There is 1 a reply to this post.

  • Auswertung der Nationalratswahl 2024

    Wahlfieber Team, 17.01.2025 02:44, Reply to #4
    #5

    Nationalratswahl 2024 - Ermittlung der Prognosegüte

    ...

    ÖVPSPÖFPÖGrüneNEOSKPÖAndereNoteMAEsMAPEMSERang
    Ergebnis 201937,5021,2016,2013,908,100,7010,00
    Prognosen 2024
    Wahlbörsen *
    Wahlfieber26,1720,2626,118,448,933,776,322,791,218,202,6113
    Wahlfieber - intern26,3720,3725,988,308,973,706,312,741,157,872,659
    WaFi-Mittelwerte
    Mittel - Schlusskurs26,2720,3226,058,378,953,746,32X0,000,000,000,00
    ÖVPSPÖFPÖGrüneNEOSKPÖAndereNoteMAEsMAPEMSERang
    Umfragen
    IFES22,0023,0027,009,0010,003,006,003,411,918,845,0819
    INSA23,0021,0029,008,008,003,008,003,061,358,534,3118
    Unique Research25,0021,0028,009,008,003,006,002,471,067,081,473
    Hajek21,0020,0031,008,008,003,009,004,032,1510,638,7820
    Market25,0020,0027,009,0011,003,004,002,361,215,491,961
    OGM25,0021,0026,009,0011,003,005,002,711,357,002,748
    Lazarsfeld25,0021,0026,008,0012,003,005,002,761,366,823,3311
    IFDD25,0021,0027,009,009,003,006,002,451,076,571,822
    Trible M. Matzka23,0021,0028,008,009,503,507,002,991,368,613,5316
    Spektra24,0021,0027,008,0010,003,007,002,861,367,863,1514
    Weitere Umfragen
    Sendestoerung25,5020,0026,508,509,003,507,002,921,358,612,9215
    Wahlfieber auf X25,3020,0026,608,208,803,607,503,051,439,123,3917
    Sonstige Umfr.-Prognosen
    APA Wahltrend24,7020,6027,108,3010,003,006,302,631,247,272,157
    PolitPro Wahltrend24,6020,8027,008,7010,003,005,902,601,247,142,054
    ÖVPSPÖFPÖGrüneNEOSKPÖAndereNoteMAEsMAPEMSERang
    Expertenprognosen
    Wahlfieber Team (MMI)26,0020,5026,008,509,003,506,502,771,217,932,7212
    Romani seniores, Aenii26,0021,2525,508,509,003,256,502,761,207,443,1010
    MMI-Wahltrend25,7720,6326,478,578,883,426,272,631,137,512,166
    Wahltipps
    Wahlfieber-User26,0320,7526,348,318,803,496,272,621,087,432,215
    ÖVPSPÖFPÖGrüneNEOSKPÖAndereNoteMAEsMAPEMSERang
    Durchschnittswerte
    Wahlbörsen26,2720,3226,058,378,953,736,322,771,188,042,63
    Umfragen24,1121,1127,228,569,833,066,002,921,427,743,62
    Weitere Umfragen25,4020,0026,558,358,903,557,252,981,398,863,16
    Sonstige Prognosen24,7720,8027,038,3310,003,006,072,621,247,212,10
    Expertenprognosen25,9220,7925,998,528,963,396,422,721,187,632,66
    Wahltipps26,0320,7526,348,318,803,496,272,621,087,432,21
    Gesamtdurchschnitt
    Summen24,9220,8126,788,479,493,246,242,841,327,803,11
    Ergebnis 202426,4821,0529,218,038,962,353,92
    ÖVPSPÖFPÖGrüneNEOSKPÖAndereNoteMAEsMAPEMSERang

    Anmerkungen:

    Die Prognosegüte wurde anhand der seit dem 01.01.2024 geltenden neuen Formel berechnet.

    Link prediction
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