Irish general elections

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  • Irish general elections

    Wahlfieber Team, 18.10.2025 04:06
    #1

    In diesem Thread sind die Auswertungen der letzten Parlamentswahlen in Irland dokumentiert - beginnend mit der Wahl im Jahre 2016.

    Die Auswertungskriterien können en detail an folgender Stelle ein- und nachgelesen werden:

    Wie wir die Prognosegüte ermitteln - http://www.wahlfieber.de/de_du/forum/WaFi-Team/7585/

    *******

    Legende (für den Schnelleinstieg):

    • MAF: mittlerer absoluter Fehler --- oft auch MAE - Mean absolute error
    • MAPF: mittlerer absoluter prozentualer Fehler - oft auch MAPE- Mean absolute percentage error
    • sMAPE: symmetrischer MAPF
    • MQF: mittlerer quadratischer Fehler--- oft auch MSE- Mean squared error
    • NOTE: aus den zuvor angeführten Fehlern ermittelte Gesamtgüte einer Prognose (angelehnt an gängige Schulnoten)
    • R: Abkürzung für "Rang" (innerhalb der in der jeweiligen Tabelle aufgeführten Prognosen)
    • X: diese Prognose fließt nicht in die Auswertung ein

    Anmerkungen:

    Quellen:

    • wahlfieber.com
    • wikipedia.org
    • politpro.eu
    • politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls
    • X/Twitter: --- x.com/GlobeElections --- x.com/XPoll21 --- x.com/wahl_prognosen --- @wahlfieber
    • Ergebnisse:

    *******

    Dieser Thread wird nach jeder Parlamentswahl um eine aktuelle Auswertung ergänzt.

    *******

    *******

    Die nachfolgenden Auflistungen erheben keinen Anspruch auf Vollständigkeit, obgleich wir bemüht sind, möglichst alle Prognosen zu erfassen.

    Fehlermeldungen, Anmerkungen oder Ergänzungen bitte ggf. per Mail an den Support oder an geeigneter Stelle im Forum.

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    There is 1 a reply to this post.

  • Irish general election, 2016

    Wahlfieber Team, 18.10.2025 04:25, Reply to #1
    #2

    ..

    Parlamentswahl Irland 2016 - Ermittlung der Prognosegüte

    ...

    FGLabFFSinn FeinPBPRenuaSocial DemsGreenAndereNoteMAEsMAPEMSERang
    Ergebnis 201136,1019,5017,509,901,000,000,001,8014,20
    Prognosen 2016
    Wahlbörsen
    Wahlfieber - Schlusskurs29,838,0720,1616,280,000,000,000,0025,66X0,000,000,000,00
    Umfragen
    Red C30,007,0020,0015,003,002,004,003,0016,003,131,627,525,006
    Ipsos28,006,0023,0015,003,002,003,002,0018,002,150,825,461,181
    Millward Brown26,475,8822,5518,634,901,963,921,9613,73X3,391,699,515,288
    B & A30,004,0022,0015,005,003,003,003,0015,003,331,739,274,807
    Sonstige Umfr.-Prognosen
    Politico28,008,0020,0017,003,002,003,002,0017,003,041,567,724,295
    Expertenprognosen
    Wahlfieber Team (MMI)28,006,0021,0015,003,502,503,502,5018,002,241,004,922,112
    MMI-Wahltrend28,506,7521,0015,503,132,133,382,3817,252,381,145,162,613
    Wahltipps
    Wahlfieber Average28,656,8020,7915,513,312,313,442,4416,762,451,225,172,944
    FGLabFFSinn FeinPBPRenuaSocial DemsGreenAndereNoteMAEsMAPEMSERang
    Durchschnittswerte
    Umfragen28,625,7221,8915,913,982,243,482,4915,683,011,477,944,06
    Sonstige Prognosen28,008,0020,0017,003,002,003,002,0017,003,041,567,724,29
    Expertenprognosen28,256,3821,0015,253,312,313,442,4417,632,311,075,042,36
    Wahltipps28,656,8020,7915,513,312,313,442,4416,762,451,225,172,94
    Gesamtdurchschnitt
    Summen28,456,3021,2915,833,602,243,402,4116,472,781,356,843,53
    Exit Polls
    Ipsos26,107,8022,9014,903,602,302,803,5016,102,020,824,890,99
    B & A24,807,1021,1016,004,702,403,703,6016,602,561,186,872,18
    Ergebnis 201625,606,6024,3013,803,902,203,002,7017,90
    FGLabFFSinn FeinPBPRenuaSocial DemsGreenAndereNoteMAEsMAPEMSERang
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  • Irish general election, 2020

    Wahlfieber Team, 18.10.2025 04:42, Reply to #2
    #3

    ..

    Parlamentswahl Irland 2020 - Ermittlung der Prognosegüte

    ...

    FGFFSFLabourGreenS-PBPAndereNoteMAEsMAPEMSERang
    Ergebnis 201625,5024,3013,806,602,703,9023,20
    Prognosen 2020
    Wahlbörsen
    Wahlfieber - Schlusskurs19,0922,9724,736,199,160,0017,863,031,617,343,437
    Umfragen
    Red C21,0024,0024,005,007,001,0018,002,620,748,370,976
    Ipsos20,0023,0025,004,008,002,0018,001,880,624,220,431
    Ireland Thinks22,0027,0020,006,0010,001,0014,005,292,9916,1711,0011
    Survation17,0022,0025,006,009,005,0016,003,611,8110,934,598
    Panelbase19,0023,0021,005,0010,005,0017,003,611,9110,334,649
    B & A20,0032,0019,004,007,002,0016,005,172,818,3819,0810
    Sonstige Umfr.-Prognosen
    Politico21,0022,0025,005,008,003,0016,001,930,713,900,974
    Expertenprognosen
    Wahlfieber Team (MMI)20,0023,0024,005,008,003,0017,001,890,773,940,663
    MMI-Wahltrend20,2222,9924,555,048,032,2516,921,890,684,000,622
    Wahltipps
    Wahlfieber Average19,8522,9924,395,318,302,6316,531,950,833,841,005
    FGFFSFLabourGreenS-PBPAndereNoteMAEsMAPEMSERang
    Durchschnittswerte
    Wahlbörsen19,0922,9724,736,199,160,0017,863,031,617,343,43
    Umfragen19,8325,1722,335,008,502,6716,503,701,819,736,78
    Sonstige Prognosen21,0022,0025,005,008,003,0016,001,930,713,900,97
    Expertenprognosen20,1123,0024,275,028,022,6216,961,890,723,970,64
    Wahltipps19,8522,9924,395,318,302,6216,531,950,833,841,00
    Gesamtdurchschnitt
    Summen19,9224,0923,335,148,412,4416,663,151,467,764,64
    Exit Polls
    Ipsos22,4022,2022,304,607,902,8017,801,700,782,921,18
    Ergebnis 202020,8622,1824,534,387,132,6318,29
    FGFFSFLabourGreenS-PBPAndereNoteMAEsMAPEMSERang

    Anmerkungen:

    Die Allianz S-PBP fließt nicht in die Auswertung ein. Für die Ermittlung der Prognosegüten wurden die Werte von S-PBP und Andere zusammengefasst.

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  • Irish general election, 2024

    Wahlfieber Team, 18.10.2025 05:08, Reply to #3
    #4

    ..

    Parlamentswahl Irland 2024 - Ermittlung der Prognosegüte

    ...

    SFFFFGIndep.GreenLabSocial DemsPBP-SOthersNoteMAEsMAPEMSERang
    Ergebnis 202024,5022,2020,9012,207,104,402,902,603,20
    Prognosen 2024
    Wahlbörsen
    Wahlfieber21,2920,8120,4217,023,453,895,350,007,771,980,824,521,086
    Umfragen
    Red C20,0021,0020,0018,004,004,006,002,005,002,371,046,661,2013
    Ipsos20,0021,0019,0017,004,004,006,003,006,002,080,835,270,978
    Ireland Thinks20,0020,0022,0019,003,004,005,002,005,002,171,104,651,7312
    Opinions18,0020,0023,0019,004,004,006,002,004,003,021,598,653,0414
    Weitere Umfragen
    Sendestoerung21,0021,0019,5017,503,004,005,503,005,501,790,803,580,962
    XPoll2121,1620,9419,6417,703,203,745,362,965,301,970,904,361,105
    Sonstige Umfr.-Prognosen
    PolitPro20,0020,7020,3018,003,704,005,702,305,302,090,895,350,859
    Politico19,0021,0021,0014,003,005,005,003,009,002,180,974,182,4711
    Globe Elections UN20,3720,6220,7215,913,953,795,192,586,872,020,815,010,837
    SFFFFGIndep.GreenLabSocial DemsPBP-SOthersNoteMAEsMAPEMSERang
    Expertenprognosen
    Wahlfieber Team (MMI)20,0021,0020,0018,003,004,006,002,006,001,860,804,210,754
    MMI-Wahltrend20,2520,9520,0016,953,444,105,632,176,511,680,613,570,521
    Wahltipps
    Wahlfieber Average20,7520,9319,9017,433,223,945,582,036,221,830,784,010,803
    SFFFFGIndep.GreenLabSocial DemsPBP-SOthersNoteMAEsMAPEMSERang
    Durchschnittswerte
    Wahlbörsen21,2920,8120,4217,023,453,895,350,007,771,980,824,521,08
    Umfragen19,5020,5021,0018,253,754,005,752,255,002,421,146,301,73
    Weitere Umfragen21,0820,9719,5717,603,103,875,432,985,401,880,853,971,03
    Sonstige Prognosen19,7920,7720,6715,973,554,265,302,637,062,100,894,851,38
    Expertenprognosen20,1220,9820,0017,483,224,055,812,086,261,770,713,890,63
    Wahltipps20,7520,9319,9017,433,223,945,582,036,221,830,784,010,80
    Gesamtdurchschnitt
    Summen20,1420,7720,4217,353,464,035,562,236,042,090,924,921,25
    Exit Polls
    Ipsos21,1019,5021,0014,904,005,005,803,105,602,381,155,672,04
    Ergebnis 202419,0121,8620,8016,983,044,654,812,846,01
    SFFFFGIndep.GreenLabSocial DemsPBP-SOthersNoteMAEsMAPEMSERang

    Anmerkungen:

    Die Allianz PBP-S fließt nicht in die Auswertung ein. Für die Ermittlung der Prognosegüten wurden die Werte von PBP-S und Andere zusammengefasst.

    Indep. = Independents / parteifreie Kandidaten

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