The best predictions:
1. CBS News / YouGov
2. Emerson
3. Wahlfieber.com
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IA 2020 DEM | Bid | But | Klo | San | War | Others | Sum | MAF | MAPF | MQF | R | ||
Caucus | |||||||||||||
Predictions 2020 | |||||||||||||
Prediction markets * | |||||||||||||
Wahlfieber - final | 22,39 | 13,87 | 9,80 | 23,53 | 16,21 | 14,20 | 204,60 | 5,49 | 148,21 | 50,91 | |||
Wahlfieber - 7 days | 21,00 | 17,00 | 10,00 | 24,00 | 16,00 | 12,00 | 167,52 | 4,84 | 123,85 | 38,83 | |||
weitere Wahlbörsen | |||||||||||||
Polls | |||||||||||||
F R A - D. Binder | 15,00 | 19,00 | 11,00 | 17,00 | 15,00 | 23,00 | 381,35 | 8,03 | 244,38 | 128,94 | |||
Emerson | 21,00 | 15,00 | 11,00 | 28,00 | 15,00 | 10,00 | 124,43 | 3,62 | 99,95 | 20,86 | |||
DFP/Civiqs | 15,00 | 15,00 | 8,00 | 28,00 | 21,00 | 13,00 | 184,28 | 5,02 | 138,83 | 40,42 | |||
USA Today - Suffolk | 25,00 | 18,00 | 6,00 | 19,00 | 13,00 | 19,00 | 314,56 | 7,72 | 206,30 | 100,54 | |||
Monmouth | 23,00 | 16,00 | 10,00 | 21,00 | 15,00 | 15,00 | 226,02 | 5,84 | 156,28 | 63,90 | |||
Iowa St / Civiqs | 15,00 | 17,00 | 11,00 | 24,00 | 14,00 | 14,00 | 205,89 | 5,70 | 149,64 | 50,55 | |||
NY Times | 17,00 | 18,00 | 8,00 | 25,00 | 15,00 | 17,00 | 235,78 | 5,24 | 175,03 | 55,51 | |||
CBS News / YouGov | 25,00 | 22,00 | 7,00 | 26,00 | 15,00 | 5,00 | 97,48 | 5,05 | 61,33 | 31,10 | |||
CNN / DMR | 15,00 | 16,00 | 6,00 | 20,00 | 17,00 | 26,00 | 424,07 | 8,24 | 277,61 | 138,22 | |||
Others | |||||||||||||
538 | |||||||||||||
Durchschnittswerte *** | |||||||||||||
Prediction markets ** | 22,39 | 13,87 | 9,80 | 23,53 | 16,21 | 14,20 | 204,60 | 5,49 | 148,21 | 50,91 | |||
Polls ** | 19,00 | 17,33 | 8,67 | 23,11 | 16,11 | 15,78 | 225,22 | 5,46 | 163,53 | 56,24 | |||
Results 2020 | 17,57 | 15,35 | 9,63 | 33,99 | 12,81 | 1,59 | |||||||
First Alignment | Bid | But | Klo | San | War | Others | Sum | MAF | MAPF | MQF | R | ||
XXXXX | XXXXXXXX | ||||||||||||
Legende:
Namenskürzel:
Links:
Anmerkungen:
Die häufig vom realen Ergebnis erheblich abweichende CNN-Umfrage wird hier angeführt, da sie auf den Wahlseiten von CNN (s.a. obiger Link) stets als erste, quasi Referenzumfrage aufgelistet wird.
Wahlfieber, originally a platform from the German-speaking world, offers (user-based) forecasts on elections worldwide - using political prediction markets without applying any algorythm.
Germany / Austria / Switzerland
All national and state elections as well as selected local, mayoral and party elections
Europe
Almost all national elections as well as selected presidential, regional and local elections and votes.
USA
All presidential, senatorial and house elections (including mid-term and most presidential primaries/caucusses) as well as important special and state elections.
UK
All national and state elections as well as important special, local and mayoral elections and votes.
Worldwide
National elections - including Australia, Canada, Israel, Japan, New Zealand, etc.
This is how you contribute to the prediction - See the Infocenter
Please send error messages and feedback by email to: help@wahlfieber.com