Wahlen in den USA (IV)
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Mein Post gestern hat die Bedingungen erwähnt, unter denen schon Vorwähler zu leiden hatten - man musste oft stundenlang Schlange stehen. Gelegentlich scheint das jedoch zu spontanen Parties geführt zu haben:
"It was an incredibly festive environment - people were laughing and chatting, Obama volunteers were passing out bottled water, local candidates (mostly Democratic candidates, I noticed), were shaking hands, thanking people for being there to vote, talking about their platforms. Kids of all colors were playing together on the courthouse lawn. A violinist with a small amplifier had staked out a position, and was playing for the crowd. A couple, who had nearly left the early voting lines the day before came back and brought a couple of hundred pizzas down to the lines, to keep people from leaving the line up due to hunger. "
Die lange Wartezeit hat einen Grund: Wähler in Florida beispielsweise konnten bis zu 48 verschiedene Kreuzchen machen.
blogs.tnr.com/tnr/blogs/the_plank/archive/2008/11/03/the-party-at-florida-s-five-hour-voting-lines.aspx
Ein kleiner Rückblick auf die Wahlwerbespots des vergangenen Jahres. Eine willkommene Abwechslung, während wir auf's Christkind - pardon, die Exit Polls - warten. Die Außenseiterkandidaten waren am kreativsten:
Dieser Spot von Mike Huckabee (mit Chuck Norris) dürfte vielen von Euch schon bekannt sein:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=MDUQW8LUMs8
Weniger oft angeschaut, aber noch lustiger meiner Meinung nach Bill Richardsons "Vorstellungsgespräch". Mich hätte er damit überzeugt:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=tjOuL5qwNIc
Paris Hilton, 200000 deutsche Fans und der "Gesalbte": McCains Film "Celebrity":
www.youtube.com/watch?v=KOrmOvHysdU
Und - weniger amüsant, aber recht eingänglich - ein aktueller Spot der GOP: Würden Sie einem Chirurgen vertrauen, der noch nie operiert hat?
"Can you wait while he learns?"
www.youtube.com/watch?v=6ARQi59v51c
Natürlich können die Konservativen auch albern - ich frag mich aber, welchen Wähler der folgende Film beeindrucken wird, mal abgesehen von Fans der "Three Stooges":
www.youtube.com/watch?v=WBjzAa1yikY&feature;=channel -
http://www.economist.com/world/unitedstates/displaystory.cfm?story_id=12542484
Election night will either be over quickly, or will turn into an incredible cliff-hanger. Virginia will be the first clue. It is a state that last voted Democrat in 1964, as part of the Lyndon Johnson wave. And since it is one of only two swing states to be positioned on the eastern sea-board, its exit polls will be available earliest: at 7pm eastern time, midnight GMT, moments after its polls close. If Mr Obama wins there—it looks good for him, given the combination of a large black vote and the affluent Washington suburbs of north Virginia that saw him trounce Hillary Clinton by 28 points—he has almost certainly won the election; Iowa and Virgina on their own are enough to put him over the line.
But if he does not win Virginia, the likelihood is that there is something wrong with the polling: a last-minute break by undecided voters in favour of Mr McCain, a so-far undetected racial bias or some other factor. The next vital state to watch will be Ohio, which will close and release exit polls half an hour later, at 7.30pm eastern time, 12.30am GMT. If Mr Obama wins here too, Mr McCain will be in serious trouble: no Republican has even won the White House without winning in Ohio. It went only marginally for Mr Kerry in 2004, and Mr Obama's organisation here is strong.
Pennsylvania, which will close its polls at 8pm eastern time, 1am GMT, represents Mr McCain's last real hope: he has been campaigning hard in the state, which has a high proportion of rural and conservative voters, backed Mrs Clinton rather than Mr Obama in the primaries and only narrowly goes Democrat in presidential elections. The polls, however, still show him 7.5 points adrift. If Mr McCain somehow wins though, the entire election will be thrown into confusion.
At about the same time, the news from Florida should come through (there will be no hanging chads this year to slow things down: Florida has new voting-machines). Florida went Republican in the last two elections, but Mr Obama is now ahead by a couple of points. If he does win in Florida, Mr Obama will be unstoppable. A clue as to how Florida is going may come an hour earlier, when voting closes in most of the state bar the “panhandle” in the west. But given the events of 2000, the networks may well be reluctant to call Florida until the whole state has closed.
The next big drama will come as the Southern states report: Mr Obama hopes to break the dominance of the Republicans here and polls show that North Carolina and Georgia may be within his reach. Later on, the mountain West looks like another good source of Obama votes: he has high hopes in Montana, New Mexico, Colorado and Nevada. Even Mr McCain's home state of Arizona might not be immune.
The other big excitement of the night will be Senate-watching. The Democrats control the Senate by 51 seats to 49; if they can capture nine more seats they will take their total to 60, the magic number needed to break filibusters from the other side. At the moment polls suggest that the Democrats will pick up eight seats, so might fall just short of the target. They are also expected to add to their solid majority in the House of Representatives; though that, frankly will be a bit of a side-show. -
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/27528804/
Die beiden "Mitternachtswahlstaaten" die sonst für die GOP stimmen haben sich diesmal klar für Obama entschieden, kleines Sample aber beachtlicher Wählerwechsel. -
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auch die Redskins haben verloren. Damit ist der Weg frei fuer Obama. -
Warum werden die Aktien vom Mac (Ohio) in letzter Zeit eigentlich verramscht wie sowjetische Militaria nach dem Fall der Mauer? In dem Ohio-Markt wurden 90 Ex. fuer Obama bezahlt, McCain ging fuer unter zwanzig weg. Hier mal ein paar Umfragen (veroeffentlicht gestern und heute):
Zogby / Reuters: Obama 49, McCain 47;
FOX / Rasmussen: 49 beide;
Strategic Vision: Obama 46, McCain 48;
PPP: Obama 50, McCain 48;
Survey USA: Obama 48, McCain 46;
Ohio Poll: Obama 52, McCain 46;
Quinnipiac: Obama 50, McCain 43.
Quelle: www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/latestpolls/index.html
Gut, die letzten beiden sind ziemlich eindeutig, aber bei den anderen fuenf Polls (von recht bekannten Pollstern) bewegen wir uns doch im Margin-of-Error-Land.
Gut, mag sein, dass Obamas Ground Game so gut ist, dass er mehr seiner Anhaenger wirklich an die Urnen bringt als McCain. Auf der anderen Seite duerften ihm Bemerkungen schaden, die er und sein designierter Vize ueber Kohlekraftwerke gemacht haben. Obama hatte (vor Monaten) gesagt:
"If somebody wants to build a coal power plant they can, it's just that it will bankrupt them because they are going to be charged a huge sum for all that greenhouse gas that's being emitted."
Joe Biden (wann nagelt dem endlich mal jemand die Zunge an die Kniescheibe) stiess ins gleiche Horn:
"No coal plants here in America," he said. "Build them, if they're going to build them, over there. Make them clean."
"We’re not supporting clean coal," he said of himself and Obama.
West Virginia, Ohio und Pennsylvania sind die Zentren des amerikanischen Kohlebergbaus. Und dort vor allem hat die GOP in den letzten Tagen versucht, mit diesen Bemerkungen Stimmung gegen Obama zu machen.
Quellen:
www.weeklystandard.com/weblogs/TWSFP/2008/11/obamas_contemptuous_quest_for.asp
www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0908/Biden_No_coal_plants_here_in_America.html -
So sehen also unsere aktuellen Kurse im Markt aus:
Obama (Ohio) 94.82
McCain (Ohio) 6.04
Bitte? Obama gewinnt laut WaFi eher Ohio als die Praesidentschaft? Es ist wahrscheinlicher, dass Obama Ohio gewinnt und nicht Praesident wird, als dass er in Ohio verliert und trotzdem ins Weisse Haus einzieht? Seid Ihr besoffen? -
Seid Ihr
> besoffen?
jetzt schon?
not me! -
> Seid Ihr
> > besoffen?
>
> jetzt schon?
> not me!
Mistverdammt, das soll einer ahnen das die Dinger fürn Appel und nen Ei verramscht werden. Gruener ich will nen Kredit.
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nix mit kredit oder leerverkäufen.
wenns nach mir geht, kommen letztere sowieso nicht ins spiel. :-) -
In Virginia, Pennsylvania und (surprise, surprise) Florida gab's erste Unregelmaessigkeiten bei der Stimmabgabe - in Virginia sind wohl schon jetzt (noch vor dem Mittagessen) tausende Waehler betroffen:
blogs.tnr.com/tnr/blogs/the_plank/archive/2008/11/04/trouble-in-the-commonwealth.aspx
Fine music for political ears
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