Türkei Markt - Meinungsumfragen
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Turkey’s governing political organization could earn a majority in next month’s legislative ballot, according to a poll by ANDY-AR Social Research Center. 37.6 per cent of respondents would vote for the Justice and Development Party (AKP) in the Great National Assembly election.
The Republican People’s Party (CHP) is a distant second with 17.1 per cent, followed by the National Action Party (MHP) with 9.8 per cent, the Turkish Democratic Party (DP) with 9.3 per cent, the Youth Party (GP) with 4.8 per cent, and the pro-Kurdish Democratic Society Party (DTP) with 3.9 per cent. Parties require at least 10 per cent of the vote to earn seats under the country’s proportional representation system.
In the November 2002 ballot, the right-leaning AKP elected 363 lawmakers to the 550-seat legislative branch. Recep Tayyip Erdogan, a member of the AKP, has served as prime minister since March 2003. The next legislative election in Turkey is scheduled for Jul. 22.
In April, the AKP proposed foreign minister Abdullah Gul, an ex-Islamist, for the presidency. The nomination sparked fierce opposition by Turkey’s political and civilian secularists, which eventually led to Gul’s withdrawal from the race.
On May 31, Erdogan catalogued the upcoming election as one of the country’s most critical in recent history, declaring, "Efforts that have been initiated to transform and push Turkey forward are vitally important and should not be interrupted under any circumstance. To preserve tranquility and stability is very important. I believe in the common sense of our people to maintain this."
Polling Data
What party would you support in the next parliamentary election?
Justice and Development Party (AKP)
37.6%
Republican People’s Party (CHP)
17.1%
National Action Party (MHP)
9.8%
Turkish Democratic Party (DP)
9.3%
Youth Party (GP)
4.8%
Democratic Society Party (DTP)
3.9%
Source: ANDY-AR Social Research Center
Methodology: Interviews with 3,176 Turk adults, conducted from May 23 to May 28, 2007. Margin of error is 2 per cent.
Bleiben noch 17,5% offen. Interessant ist aber die vernünftige Sample-Größe und die geringe Fehlerbandbreite. -
„Poll declares 'absolute majority' for the AKP
Tuesday, June 19, 2007
REETA ÇEVİK
ISTANBUL - Turkish Daily News
A poll by Raymond James Securities Turkey office claims that the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) will gain an absolute majority in the next Parliament with 41.9 percent of the vote. Raymond James Securities is a subsidiary of the United States-based securities house.
The poll, which was conducted by private market research house KONDA in early June, maintains that the Republican People's Party (CHP) and the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) will be opposition parties in the next three-party Parliament. The main opposition alliance of the CHP and the Democratic Left Party (DSP) will secure 15 percent of the vote. In contrast to the last general elections, the MHP gets 12 percent of the vote and will thus be represented in Parliament. No other party will exceed the 10 percent national election threshold. For the first time, 40 independent deputies, mainly from the pro-Kurdish Democratic Society Party (DTP) will enter Parliament. Undecided voters consist of 17.5 percent of all respondents, but the ratio is expected to drop. As a result, the AKP will have an estimated 307 deputies.
The poll, which was conducted in 201 neighborhoods throughout the country, is based on interviews with 3,605 people.“
Ganze Meldung:
http://www.turkishdailynews.com.tr/article.php?enewsid=76183 -
Re: Neue Meinungsumfrage - AKP weit vorne
Götz von Berlichingen(†), 19.06.2007 19:05, Antwort auf #2PS: Was man so alles findet wenn man nach Türkei-Wahl-Umfragen (turkey poll) sucht...
http://www.usmagazine.com/i_us_i_poll_turkey
:-) -
Political parties promising everything under the sun
gruener (Luddit), 22.06.2007 22:16, Antwort auf #3Political parties promising everything under the sun
Friday, June 22, 2007
http://www.turkishdailynews.com.tr/article.php?enewsid=76474
The election campain is dominated by wild promises as usual, with the price of diesel decreasing to YTL 1 is the most popular as of now. Experts believe the pledges will not change the results because the public has tired of unfulfilled promises
GÖKSEL BOZKURT
ANKARA - TDN Parliament Bureau
The wild promises made by political parties in Turkey began when former Democrat Party (DP) deputy Ali Rıza Kılıçkale in an election campaign in the 1950s promised the province of Kayseri, located in the center of the Anatolian plateau, that if elected, he would bring them the sea.
Kılıçkale's failure to deliver on his promise did not stop others following his example in the following elections. The coming one on July 22 is no different.
The utopian nature of campaign pledges doesn't stop them from dominating the political landscape in every election.
The Young Party (GP) leader Cem Uzan's promise to decrease the price of diesel to YTL one per liter, from its current YTL 2.2, has gathered such momentum that most of the other parties have followed suit. The mostly neglected farmers of the country are now amazed to see that the fuel they use the most has become the number one pledge of the campaign.
One party promises to create a national cartoon movie sector, while another assures pensioners that their pensions will be increased 14-fold if they come to power.
While almost everyone listens to these promises with a smile and new jokes are invented everyday, this doesn't stop them from becoming tangible factors that will influence election results.
Pledges:
If the Republican People's Party (CHP) comes to power the University Entrance Examinations (ÖSS) will be abolished and the insurance fees of the poor, including struggling artists and neighborhood administrators (muhtar) will be paid by the state.
The party will establish a national health insurance system whereby everyone will have equal access to medical facilities with their national identification card.
Subsidies paid to farmers will be doubled and the price of diesel will be halved.
Under a CHP government there will be a national campaign to combat violence against women. The party, which surveys predict will come second after the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP), also promises another old favorite – the abolition of the immunity enjoyed by parliamentarians.
The GP, as already mentioned promises to decrease the price of diesel oil to YTL one, but also says it will give every unemployed person YTL 350 per month.
Under the GP, the government will pay YTL eight for every kilogram of hazelnut and drop the VAT. Turkey will withdraw from European Union negotiations and there will be no ÖSS, if they come to power, the GP swears. One joke made in Ankara about Uzan's promises is, “If GP comes to power, diesel will cost YTL one, there will be a 14-fold increase in pensions and pregnancy will be shortened to three months.”
If the Democrat Party, led by Mehmet Ağar, emerges as the victor in the July 22 elections, the cost of diesel will drop below YTL one and farmers will be given assistance on medicine, seeds, fertilizer, electricity and water so that they can better compete with European farmers.
AKP pledges:
The AKP, which has governed the country for the past four-and-a-half years also has a long list of promises and excuses why it failed to implement them previously.
The Constitutional Court gets special attention, with the appointment of judges being overhauled. Considering the court's decision to annul the first round of elections in early May resulting in the AKP's withdrawal of its presidential candidate and calling for elections earlier than it anticipated, it is no surprise that one of its promises is to change the way judges and prosecutors are promoted in a more objective way.
The government promises to overhaul the legal framework of the country to “truly establish the rule of law.”
Another focal point of the government is the Higher Education Board (YÖK), which has been one of its most vocal critics over the years, promising to restructure Turkey's tertiary education.
A national cartoon industry:
The Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) wants to develop a Turkish cartoon industry and bring the Internet to every household.
The MHP promises to decrease inflation to three percent and give YTL 200 to every family in need.
There will be no income tax on minimum wage under a MHP government and there will be seven percent economic growth every year, allowing the government to create three-and-a-half million new jobs.
Members of the security agencies will be given a monthly assistance of YTL 230 and the number of night vision cameras in urban areas will be increased.
The abolishment of the ÖSS, probably the second most popular promise, is also on the MHP's campaign list.
Pocket money for children:
The Independent Turkey Party (BTP), one of the smaller parties, promises to pay YTL 500 to housewives, YTL 250 to children. Diesel will be YTL 0.8 and minimum wage will be increased from its current YTL 402 to YTL 2,000.
‘Back to the beginning'
Most experts believe promises made by political parties during election campaigns are usually “not realistic.”
Prof. Fuat Keyman from Koç University told the Turkish Daily News that the July 22 elections were being held under very “abnormal” conditions and that most political parties had reverted to making wild promises to defeat the dominant AKP.
“The AKP says it is a center-right party and its campaign is mostly based on its economic policies. Their statements are more like ‘we did so and so and will do so and so.' They want to be seen as the only party on the center-right,” he said.
Keyman said other parties were weaker than the AKP organization-wise, so they based their election strategy on the threat to the regime or terrorism, like the CHP, or on making wild promises as most had done in the past.
“Decreasing the price of diesel or abolishing the ÖSS are long term plans that necessitate long term planning and are not realistic,” he said, describing it as the “return to the old political mindset.”
‘Promises are not enough'
Former Parliamentary Speaker Hüsametting Cindoruk told the TDN that most politicians did not spend enough time on their plans before uttering their promises.
“Such promises were made in the past and were mostly ignored by the people,” he said.
Cindoruk cited former Prime Minister Necmettin Erbakan's campaign promise to build 100,000 tanks and 10,000 fighter jets, and noted that Erbakan had failed to get any votes. “Such wild promises don't really influence the election results. Everyone makes such pledges but what they should really be explaining is how they will afford to realize their promises within budgetary constraints. You may abolish the ÖSS but how will you place one-and-a-half million students in universities? Such promises may have an affect on the young but it won't have that much of an influence on the results,” he said.
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Public support for Turkey’s ruling party has significantly increased this month, according to a poll by Sonar. 40.05 per cent of respondents would vote for the Justice and Development Party (AKP) in next month’s parliamentary election, up 11.1 points since May.
The Republican People’s Party (CHP) and the Democratic Left Party (DSP) are second with 20.03 per cent, followed by the National Action Party (MHP) with 12.20 per cent, the Youth Party (GP) with 11.06 per cent, and the Turkish Democratic Party (DP) with 11.02 per cent. Parties require at least 10 per cent of the vote to earn seats under the country’s proportional representation system.
In the November 2002 ballot, the right-leaning AKP elected 363 lawmakers to the 550-seat legislative branch. Recep Tayyip Erdogan, a member of the AKP, has served as prime minister since March 2003. The next legislative election in Turkey is scheduled for Jul. 22.
In Turkey, the president is elected to a single seven-year term by the Great National Assembly. In April, the AKP proposed foreign minister Abdullah Gul, an ex-Islamist, for the presidency. The nomination sparked fierce opposition by Turkey’s political and civilian secularists, which eventually led to Gul’s withdrawal from the race.
On Jun. 27, Turkey’s military chief Yasar Buyukanit requested the government permission and guidelines to retaliate against Kurdish guerrillas who are allegedly attacking Turkey from northern Iraq. Buyukanit declared during a televised news conference: "There is a need to know political targets in this struggle, then the military would determine what kind of force it needs to do it and seek formal approval."
Buyukanit had previously asked the government to approve an incursion into northern Iraq, as well as increasing pressure on the United States and Iraq to crack down on Kurdish rebels there.
Polling Data
What party would you support in the next parliamentary election?
Jun. 2007 May 2007
Justice and Development Party (AKP)
40.05% 29.04%
Republican People’s Party (CHP) and
Democratic Left Party (DSP)
20.03% 16.68%
National Action Party (MHP)
12.20% 12.18%
Youth Party (GP)
11.06% 10.07%
Turkish Democratic Party (DP)
11.02% 20.10%
Source: Sonar
Methodology: Interviews with 3,045 Turk adults, conducted from Jun. 12 to Jun. 20, 2007. Margin of error is 1.72 per cent.
Fehlerrate 1,72 Prozent? Sehr seriös ;-) Das einzig erstaunliche sind eigentlich die Genc Prozente. Hat jemand eine Umfrage die diese Werte bestätigt? -
Wie bereits mehrmals erwähnt, habe ich, obwohl an der türkei-börse teilnehmend, keine ahnung von der dort herrschenden stimmung.
Daher zwei fragen:
1) Gibt es neue meinungsumfragen?
2) Noch viel wichtiger: Wann findet diese wahl eigentlich statt? -
> 2) Noch viel wichtiger: Wann findet diese wahl eigentlich statt?
steht diesmal sogar klar in den Marktregeln.
Marktende:
22. Juli 2007 - früh morgens
OK, das Marktende muss nicht unbedingt mit dem Tag der Wahl übereinstimmen. Bei diesem Markt ist´s so.
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Danke, thomas!
Dieses drauflostraden bei völliger ahnungslosigkeit ist an und für sich meine sache nicht.
In den letzten zwei tagen wurden mir viele ladenhüter-aktien auf einmal abgekauft, sodass es durchaus möglich ist, dass jemand einen informationsvorsprung besitzt.
Ich besitze nun zu gleichen teilen nur mehr akp- und mhp-aktien. -
Lieber Rom,
derzeit scheint es so in der Türkei zu stehen:
Ankara (Reuters) - Die Partei des türkischen Ministerpräsidenten Tayyip Erdogan kann Umfragen zufolge bei den Parlamentswahlen in zwei Wochen mit einer sicheren Mehrheit rechnen.
Den am Donnerstag veröffentlichten Ergebnissen zufolge wollen 40 Prozent der Türken ihre Stimme der im Islam verwurzelten Regierungspartei AKP geben. Auf die größte Oppositionspartei, die links der Mitte angesiedelte Republikanische Volkspartei (CHP) entfallen demnach etwa 18 Prozent. Die ultra-nationalistische MHP pendelt derzeit rund um die Zehn-Prozent-Schwelle, die für einen Einzug in das Parlament überschritten werden muss.
Die Umfrage wurde vom Meinungsforschungsinstitut Pollmark gemacht und am Donnerstag von der regierungsfreundlichen Tageszeitung Yeni Safak veröffentlicht. Weitere Befragungen, die von der Tageszeitung Aksam publiziert wurden, kamen zu ähnlichen Ergebnissen. So sah das Institut Genar die AKP bei 41 Prozent, die CHP bei 22 Prozent und die MHP bei elf Prozent. In diesem Fall käme die AKP auf 317 der 550 Sitze im Parlament, die CHP auf 142 und die MHP auf 56 Abgeordnete. Zudem dürften bis zu 29 Unabhängige ins Parlament einziehen, die meisten davon aus der kurdischen Region. Die Sitzverteilung ist in hohem Maße davon abhängig, wieviel Gruppierungen den Sprung ins Parlament schaffen.
Die AKP ist seit 2001 an der Regierung und profitiert von einem starken Wirtschaftswachstum sowie von dem Beginn der EU-Beitrittsgespräche, um deren Aufnahme sich die Türkei 40 jahre lang bemüht hat. Die säkulare Elite des Landes hat die Partei aber im Verdacht, heimlich an einer Islamisierung der Türkei zu arbeiten. Die AKP hat den Vorwurf zurückgewiesen. Im Streit um den Nachfolger von Präsident Ahmet Necdet Sezer flammte der Konflikt Ende April so heftig auf, dass Erdogan vorgezogene Wahlen für den 22. Juli ansetzte.
Zusammenfassend:
AKP 40-41% - Schnitt 40,5
CHP 18-22% - Schnitt 20,0
MHP 10-11% - Schnitt 10,5
Rest 32-26% - Schnitt 29,0
Andere Parteien unter der 10% Hürde. Genaueres habe ich derzeit auch nicht. -
Vielen dank! -
Werde also umstieg von mhp auf chp versuchen!
Kauf dir einen Markt!
Erlesenes für das politische Ohr
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